Long Range Forecast: Disney’s ‘A Wrinkle In Time’

Croak

Five films are currently slated for wide release on Friday, March 9, although several remain up in the air in terms of exact release strategies. The one we can safely bet on, though, is Disney’s latest live action adaptation.

Our early analysis and updated forecasts follow:

A Wrinkle In Time
Disney

PROS:

  • Disney has plenty of experience churning out blockbuster hits these days. For the most part, their efforts in the live action adaptation/remake category have proven highly successful. Early trailers indicate this could be another widely appealing entry in that vein thanks to built-in awareness of the source material — not to mention a generally wide open late winter/early spring market with minimal competition.
  • Reese Witherspoon, Oprah Winfrey, Mindy Kaling, and Chris Pine offer plenty of combined star power to aid appeal among adults/parents.
  • Director Ava DuVernay is fresh off wide acclaim for her work behind the camera on 2014’s Selma. As the first black female director to helm a film with a $100 million+ budget — and in tandem with the strong cast of female leads — this film will be generating timely attention upon release. If strong word of mouth follows, a North American run closer to $200 million wouldn’t be out of the question.

CONS:

  • Initial social media buzz isn’t quite as fervent as it was for the likes of 2015’s Cinderella remake or 2014’s Maleficent. Still, Facebook activity is notably ahead of where 2016’s Pete’s Dragon stood at the same point before release.
  • Madeleine L’Engle’s original novel may not be as widely in demand for the big screen treatment — or as popular among today’s target younger audiences — compared to some of Disney’s recent adaptations and remakes or blockbuster young adult fare like The Hunger Games. Strong reviews and a widely appealing final product could change that status quo, though.

This Week’s Other Notes

  • Black Panther‘s initial presales blew past mid-range expectations earlier this week. While caution remains prudent as fans rush to grab tickets for the hotly anticipated Marvel film, the film’s current sales activity combined with a surge of social media momentum now has the it definitively tracking closer to our high-end expectations.
  • Peter Rabbit continues to display very healthy social media trends leading up to next month’s opening. With the growing potential of Black Panther, though, early tracking has shifted to be more conservative on the family-driven film.
  • The Hurricane Heist is set to open March 9, although we’re withholding forecasts until a trailer is available.
  • The Upside is likewise slated for March 9, however, we’re holding off on forecasts due to the lack of a trailer and current ambiguity about its release strategy under the Weinstein Company banner.

8-Week Forecast:

Release DateTitle3-Day Wide Opening% Chg from Last WeekDomestic Total% Chg from Last WeekLocation CountDistributor
1/19/201812 Strong$14,000,000+8%$45,000,000+8%2,900Warner Bros.
1/19/2018Den of Thieves$6,500,000$13,000,0002,400STXfilms
1/26/2018Maze Runner: The Death Cure$24,000,000$65,000,0003,700Fox
2/2/2018Winchester$10,000,000$28,000,000Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018The 15:17 to Paris$16,000,000$50,000,000Warner Bros.
2/9/2018Fifty Shades Freed$40,000,000$100,000,000Universal
2/9/2018Peter Rabbit$19,000,000-24%$78,000,000-24%Sony / Columbia
2/16/2018Black Panther$120,000,000+33%$335,000,000+22%Disney
2/16/2018Early Man$4,000,000$20,000,000Lionsgate / Summit
2/16/2018Samson$3,500,000$13,000,000Pure Flix
2/23/2018Annihilation$15,000,000$50,000,000Paramount
2/23/2018Every Dayn/an/aOrion
2/23/2018Game Night$17,000,000$55,000,000Warner Bros.
2/23/2018The War with Grandpan/an/aTWC / Dimension
3/2/2018Death Wish$13,500,000$34,000,000Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018Red Sparrow$26,000,000$84,000,000Fox
3/9/2018Gringo$3,000,000NEW$7,500,000NEWSTXfilms
3/9/2018The Hurricane Heistn/an/aEntertainment Studios
3/9/2018Strangers: Prey at Night$4,000,000NEW$8,500,000NEWAviron
3/9/2018The Upsiden/an/aThe Weinstein Company
3/9/2018A Wrinkle In Time$52,000,000NEW$154,000,000NEWDisney